HEADLINE NOVEMBER 3: Republicans Suffer Unexpected Defeat

I am hearing the pundits predicting a strong presence by the Republican challengers to the Democratic congressional majority this November. It seems reasonable right? I mean, between the Tea Party movement and the clear "anti-incumbent" movement in the electorate, the Republicans are sure to win.

Not so fast! Sure it looks good for the right today, but what is coming down the pipe? Well, let me "splain" it to you.. This current movement towards the right is very similar to that of the first term of the FDR administration. He and his congressional majority had marched in to office and begun chomping at individual liberties (in the name of civil liberties) at a record pace. They pummeled the legislature with law after law in response to a chain of events that added up to a defined National Crisis.

At this point in the FDR years, he had created a huge recovery fund under the promise of fixing the economy but had only spent a portion of it. The conservative momentum from that huge spending bill seemed unstoppable and polls around the country reflected that momentum. As the mid term elections neared and the campaigns shifted into high gear, something started to change. FDR began to filter that un-spent money into strategic places, thus giving him and his party an un-noticed advantage.

It is my contention that our current administration is following the same playbook and will get similar results. Sadly, I predict a great disappointment after the November elections and I fear a much greater crisis in the coming years. Yes, Obama is going to get help on multiple levels and, like FDR, he will come out smelling like a rose. I know you think I'm crazy but let me explain my theory.

First, the economic indicators.. Unemployment, GDP, and inflation are three major economic indicators, in that, they seem to be directly attached to the state of our economy to the public at large. You can expect Obama to strictly monitor these indicators and use federal programs to artificially enhance them. The new banking control, for example, gives the government a great deal of power over interest rates, thus allowing control over inflation. They also use short term infrastructure projects (funded by the stimulus package) to lower unemployment for the near future. That is, at least until the projects are finished. New federal mandates regarding pollution, green jobs , and real estate can force a spike in the GDP and reflect well on the policies of the left.

Second, tactical windfall spending.. Obama and his minions have, no doubt, analyzed the state of the political arena. They know which markets are very unlikely to support a Democrat, very likely to support a Democrat, and those who are undecided. For those areas where Obama is sure that the Democrats will hold their seats, there will be very little stimulus money to go around. It will be the "swing" areas who get the most money. Obama will funnel money into local economies to make it appear that everyone else is getting the same level of help and thus, voters will be convinced that his programs are working for everyone. As for the strongly conservative areas, the battle between the RINOs and the Tea Parties will likely leave liberals with the plurality and the victory.

Third, the Bush Tax cuts... The Bush tax cuts are expected to expire next year and the wealthy are no dummies. If they can find a way to make their money this year while they can still keep it they will. The sudden increase in reported income will give the appearance that the economy has gotten better and even the rich will seem to be feeling the benefits of the Obama policies.

Finally, catastrophe... The Gulf Oil disaster is only the beginning, something else is on the way. It may be natural or it may be man made but the next tragedy is in the works. More than likely it will be much smaller than the media will make it out to be. It could be an illness, a death in the family, a riot, maybe an attempt on his life, who knows? Whatever it is, Obama will find a well timed burst in popularity because people will see a new level of humanity from the exalted one.

The trouble is that, next year, the wealthy will show less profit. They will be afraid to spend what they do make for fear of whatever socialist policies are yet to come from the still powerful Democratic majority. After the election the stimulus money will run out and in the beginning of next year they will have to address that shortfall. Soon after that, the short term projects will start wrapping up and unemployment will start to rise. This is what happened when Clinton provided short term funding for law enforcement across the nation. That funding stopped and cities were left unable to pay the new police and they were forced to let them go. The control over economic indicators will slowly slip through Obama's fingers and people will find themselves locked into another great depression.

This is why the recession of the 1920s became the Great Depression of the 1930s. This is also why we are facing the hardest times of our lives. I'm not trying to scare you, in stead, I'm trying to warn you. The only way we can prevent the repeat of this cycle is through education. Call out the left as they do the things that I've predicted. Remember this post and return to it in October. Show your friends just how things have gone as I've said and how they will continue as they have before. Now get out there and do your part, do it for those who do not see, do it for your children!